1. UNLOCK BOOKING INFORMATION $OP 386.5M $OP (equivalent to 9% of total supply) equivalent to $588M will be unlocked in this round for: * Project development team: 204M $OP * Investors include The 3 big funds are a16z, Paradigm and IDEO Colab Ventures: 182M $OP -> Estimates from the amount of funding rounds they bought at OP at an average price of $0.24 (~ x6 times at present) Unlocked quantity OPTIMISM’s this batch is really big because it’s bigger than $OP’s Market Cap which is currently $506M (while unlocking to $588M). * Including the amount after unlocking, Optimism’s Market Cap will be ~70% of the current Arbitrum’s Market Cap. * For TVL alone, Optimism is only 40% compared to Arbitrum. And other parameters like Transactions or Active Users Optimism are also quite inferior to Arbitrum! -> So in our opinion, Optimism will be Overvalued after unlocking! 2. MOTION FROM MARKET MAKER – WINTERMUTE TRADING As you all know, Wintermute is OP’s big MM, this fund is currently holding 20 million OP. This number of OPs was accumulated from November 18, 2022 to January 8, 2023 with a price range of $0.8 – $1.2. To easily follow the actions of big hands holding OP like Wintermute. My team built a Dashboard on Dune to track the number of OPs going in and out of the top 300 OP holders’ wallets. According to the data observed by the team: yesterday more than 4 million USD of $OP left the wallet of Wintermute, this amount has been pushed to Binance by the fund, currently holding 15 million. Earlier on April 17, the fund also pushed $OP worth more than $1.3M to 2 exchanges, Coinbase and Binance -> Then the $OP price decreased gradually from $2.69 to $1.56. With a large number of OPs unlocked tomorrow, do you think OP’s price can hold up in the near future? Link Optimism Top Holders with detailed balance change https://dune.com/tk-research/optimism-top-holders-with-detailed-balance-change Wintermute transaction link with OP https://debank.com/profile /0xdbf5e9c5206d0db70a90108bf936da60221dc080/history?chain=op
Source: Collector
