# Insight for SHANGHAI – Bad things will happen when… ## UPCOMING SHANGHAI UPDATE WILL ALLOW **18 MILLION ETH **TO STAKING IN 2021 TO UNNSTAKE. TO CAN UNSTAKE AND WITHDRAW – VALIDATORs MUST TRANSFER CREDENTIALS FROM 0X00 => 0X01 According to statistics from dune analystic on February 20, there are about 242,663 validator 0x01 and 316,407 validator 0x00 A block can only withdraw 16 times – 12 seconds is 1 block is generated Assuming all the above piles are 0x01 and all are fully withdrawn then : ( 242663 + 316407) / 16(max withdraw ) * 12(average blocktime) / 3600(s) = **117 hours** to do that **Question 1 solved : Withdraw slowly and not shock the price.** Holdup , how can everyone withdraw , just calculate like that to get a symbolic number Stop. You should remember that the total staking is ~18 million ETH but 7 million 8 of them are staking on LSDs – where you can withdraw ETH at any time and without waiting for ShangHai. Meaning if people used LSDs to stake ETH before, they** could already withdraw = their stETH** Do a little math: 18 – 7.8 = 10.2M ETH left. Do you remember there were about 300 thousand 0x00? – That place if converted to ETH will be 9 million 6. There is still a possibility that the credential 0x00s that are built up by themselves will change to 0x01 ^^ **Question #2 solved** : **There will be no dump of 18 million ETH.* * * The case that led to ** panic and dump** was that Lido’s Validators were suddenly **slashing or going offline** in large numbers due to factors such as war and natural disasters. As a result, the amount of ETH of **Depositors is affected**, that’s when the real panic is heard. * The worst case scenario for ETH is that all of a sudden all the stakers dump all their ETH and don’t bother farming anymore… 14% of the total supply, too smail to fail * The people who stake on the beacon chain are mostly long term holders. A 2-year lockup will not be easy with a short term holder. * Another idea I got on twitter, case PoS ETH! Everyone thought it increased when switching to PoS but then it fell! Then when everything is too neat and ae fomo, the opposite can happen In short, the case of dumping all staking eth is very unlikely – a small part may be due to an economic recession. take profit request. Protocols that address staker concerns (LSD) and optimize staker returns (restaking) are increasingly being developed. **More worrying is the LSD protocols** Pool for stakers to swap from stETH (which you will receive when you send ETH to LDO) to ETH **only ~500k ETH** While the amount ETH deposited into LDO amounted to more than **n 5 million** . This means that stETH will only meet 10% if **bankrun** and **panic swap…** **Bull case** in this case there will be a **stETH bottom-fishing **trader. If there is a slippage If the LSD protocols pass this test, we will probably witness a huge TVL growth because over 18m ETH staked, only 8.5m will be in the list. LSD protocol. Bored of long-term locking, slashing, not knowing how to code, high electricity bills, etc. could be reasons to push the rest of the ETH into LSD protocols. **Too long ; didn’t read** + Update ShangHai coming soon the possibility of a dump price is yes but very low + It will take about 117 hours to withdraw + There will be no dump of 18 million ETH – If there is, it will not matter +Th More worrisome are the LSD . protocols
Source: Collector
