Saturday, September 30, 2023
HomeNewsMULTIFUNCTIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS (stage 3.5 - end of May)


————————————————— ———- **first. Macroeconomics** a) US – First, the decision to raise the ceiling has not been made, but it will certainly be raised, because if the debt defaults, not only Democrats but also Republicans will suffer very big. The question if so, why not make a decision early and if it is late, when will it be at the latest. – *Answer: *mostly, the ceiling raise has not been approved by the House of Representatives (held by the CH) because this party still wants to increase pressure on the DC party (which is in power) to achieve the requirements. requirements set forth by the Republican Party. However, in the end, the lower house still has to pass so we will focus on the second question, when will the decision be made at the latest? – *Answer: *If the decision is not made, the US will default on its debt on June 1 (next Thursday), while if the decision to raise the ceiling is made, the US will need time. to **borrow money** before that time to process spending, which means that the US will need to borrow money early next week (because in the middle of the payment week) -> the decision needs to be made earlier than that. + Besides, raising the ceiling has a significant impact on the financial system and banking, so these plans need to be made before the trading session of the new foreign exchange week. Combining this with the above, we can understand that the latest decision to raise the ceiling will be on this Friday. – On the other hand, the decision has been repeatedly delayed for many weeks, which has raised fears that the US will soon default on its debt, which will cause all investment markets to go down, facing this view, many retailers have cash out moves out of the market in the same weeks (photo 2). ******************** **b) Hong Kong – Retailers allowed to trade from 1/6. Unlike the previous time (2021), it is only for professional investors (with a portfolio worth >1m$) to invest. – There are more than 80 companies, from the floor, insurance and other related parties in the market that have been approved and licensed since the end of April until now – There are many insurance companies as well as banks. Customers are looking for opportunities for their users to trade BTC and ETH on licensed exchanges. * And what’s important? – Except for point 1, ideas 2 and 3 **NOT ANNOUNCED, **while June 1st is already implemented, meaning they need to publish more specific information about who has been granted prior to the opening date. From my point of view, this announcement will fall at the latest 5-7 days before this event, which is this Thursday 5-7. -> In summary, we have the decision to raise the ceiling (in contrast to retail sentiment) and the announcement from Hong Kong (positive news for the market) will likely be released in the middle of the end of this week. ->> With this perspective, Luong thinks it’s not too bad at this time when we have 2 big and positive macro news coming ————- ————————————————- * *2. Micro** a) Fud Binance and the conspiracy theory behind it – First, we have Fud binance using Users’ money as the cause of the market crash (pic 4), even though there was a negative representative. but no one seems to care. However, there is an unexpected coincidence that when this fud was released, a few hours earlier, the market had news that… FTX 2.0 will be started earlier than expected (photo 5. ). – Everything would be normal if it was another exchange, but the forerunner of the founder of FTX ver 1 is Sam curly and that is also the ** 2nd sponsor ** in the election campaign of the incumbent president America Biden. – From there we have the conspiracy theory that the US government tried to accuse, attack Binance to lose its market share, and turn its attention to another exchange, which used to have “shady relationships with the government) *This part is going to be very long, so Luong will post it at another time* So the question is, has it really impacted binance? – The answer is yes, looking at the stablecoin flow into the market. (Figure 6), focusing on September 2022 onwards, the period when the biggest cash flow out of the market is not the FTX crash, but February 2023-3/2023. Coincidentally instead, it was the time when Binance’s Fud Busd (photo 7) was accused of securities, and it was also the time when billions of dollars were withdrawn from Binance (figure 8). In the last 24 hours, Binance wallets 14, 15, 16 are all wallet addresses that store tokens of Binance users who have transferred 28,001,334 $BUSD to Paxos (photo 8+9 – source team 52hz alert crew), to cash out off the floor *why the above fud makes retailers cash out. Quan will avoid writing here for brevity* ****************** b) MM and friends with BTC in particular – So how are the MMs, look at the heat chart (photo 10). In the upper part, we see that the price of 26k has a darker red section and the area of ​​25k6 and below is dense with yellow and red segments, which are the current limit buy – buy wall positions. Meanwhile, as analyzed in the previous article, MM and Whale in general, they do not use limit orders because the floor will see it and the floor will have a way to insert orders before their orders. So from that, we infer that the price range of 26k and 25k6 and below is the area where retailers are waiting to line up. – On the other hand, looking at the lower part of the chart, we see that the price decrease by orders with volume from 10k-100k$ affects the market. while the smaller orders (representing the small hand – retailers) have sold out of their strength and have not shown any signs of catching the bottom, BUT, look at the red and brown colors, representing large volume (big hand) then one side is catching the bottom at this section (red), and the other side has been collecting since May 22 and then holding it until now. Besides, even though the purple color has been discharged, its collection volume is still very large. -> MM is restructuring and gathering lightly at this part. ****************** b) MM and friends with the market in general – Looking at the tracking data (photos 11 to 13, of team 52hz alert crew), we saw a large amount of stablecoins on the exchange today, up to 125m$ coming from many different MMs and VCs like Amber Cumber, Alameda… showing that they are trying to catch the market at this point – Show positive expectations positive for the market in the near term, as many other retailers try to cash out and wait for lower prices to re-enter. ****************** c) Retailers behavior at the moment – Based on Funding rate and long short ratio (Pictures 14 & 15). We see that the Funding rate tends to be low and the short is more dominant is enough to say that the current sentiment of retailers in general is actively shorting BTC to lower price areas. ————————————————— ———— **3. Summary **- We have positive news for the market in the near future – Retailers try to short / exit / cash out at the moment – MM and VC actively push stablecoins to collect BTC and Altcoin -> From the This main factor, combined with the perspective from previous articles, Luong himself thinks that we can task risk to buy at the present time, but should not expect the price to return to the 25kx area because MM has gathered. At the current price range, what they will do is prevent retailers from entering a better price range. After all, this is an article that Luong has omitted a lot of details, and other information for her to read and be more concise, hope it will be of help to everyone in the future. Thank you to everyone who followed and the ad team for reviewing the post!

Source: Collector



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