First of all, we will observe the strongest fish in the market, the top wallet > 10k BTC. See what it did in the past time and link to the present time. Back in June 2022 when this group gathered and released, we have the following data (see image 1) We have the following ideas: 1. The bottom price does not fall more than 10% from the collection price (the aggregate price is considered). according to liquidity and ptkt) 2. The time from strong collection to discharge is 60 days (2 months) 3. Discharge area, in preliminary consideration, is only relatively even. However, compared to gathering, at the top, the profit is about 20%. Observing when this group gathered in December last year, we also collected similar data, with a fluctuation band not lower than 10% of the collection price, after 2 months, we started to release and this time the profit was very high. High! And what does that have to do with the present? These fish have started to gather strongly at the price range from ***29kx – 30k from April 19 *** (Figure 2). So, applying this with our price adjustment, what data do we have? 1. The price will be difficult to drop past 26k5 (10% from the collection area). 2. Exhaust timing is in mid-June, coincides with HK event 3. BTC cycle from 6-8 months after bottoming will launch strongly (timed coincident) ———– ————————————————— — However, that’s still not enough, so we need to look and observe more at the liquidity and actions of different players in the market (Figure 3). bottoming -> discharge is exhausted. That is, just a moderate increase in force is enough to push the chart up. At the same time, the large liquidity at 27k-27k1 acts as both a support and an accumulation area. -> So it is difficult for the price to go deeper than 26k5**, because the force of discharge is low, the liquidity is at 27k and when it comes to technical analysis, this area is a very hard support area (Fig. 4), while the 25k area is the most awaited place by retailers (figure 5) Meanwhile we all know how the bookie will make **retailers lose their stock** (stop loss) and not match queue, then **fishes** go up and push the price, this is a situation that has happened continuously from January to now, typically in January retailers wait for 12k-14k, then the price goes up from 16kx, in March when the crowd waits at 18k5, the price goes up from 19k5…v.v -> Confirming the price, it’s difficult to return to the area where the crowd is waiting. ————————————————— —- That’s with retailers waiting, so what are the rest of them betting on? – Looking at the technical chart, we see they are waiting for the price to go up to short. Let’s look at the (old) liquidation and funding chart below: With 2 liquidation data (photo 6 + 7) we can understand Most of the Long team have lost their color from 27kx – 28k. Next, funding is continuously decreasing (Figure 8), especially after the news of Bittrex’s bankruptcy, showing that many retailers at the moment are trying to short and chase BTC to lower price points. -> From there we can understand the crowd is *trying to short or wait to get in line*. ————————————————— ———– And now we come to the final part, the macro part of this week, to give a summary view. We will have 2 CPI news on the evening of 7:30 pm on May 10 (Figure 9 + 10), these are the 2 news that have the biggest impact on the market at the moment. – First of all, analyzing monthly CPI news, we have the following suggestions: unemployment will not increase anymore but wages will decrease, consumption expectations decrease, personal consumption index decreases and retail sales decrease. -> That shows that the demand is generally reduced, combined with the US interest rate hike again + the weakening banking system -> CPI is likely to be lower than expected, which makes a short-term pump for the market. school. The CPI news of the year seems to be even more clear, because the time close to last summer is the peak of inflation, while interest rates have been increasing continuously since then (Figure 11). with the year, it will certainly be a decrease compared to the previous year. This will be another good news for us, most likely. (Because this article is relatively long, Luong will not analyze the “cause” of recent events as usual, but will always come to the conclusion) ———— ———————————————– In short, We have the following ideas: – Retailers are shorting BTC and waiting to short in the above areas – Liquidity + support at 27k – The dealer will not let the price exceed 26k5 (makes it difficult for investors to enter the line) – Exhaustion exhausted from many subjects – Macro news has many good directions. **Conclusion**, it is very likely that the price will move across this area and then go up, or make a flash dump last down to >26k7 and rebound strongly. This is the conclusion based on the analysis of the behavior of fish, retailers, as well as the macro situation and other fluctuations. Not sure where the price will go this time, but the possibility of the price reaching the 29kx mark again before June is extremely certain, because the fish >10k BTC always have a very high timing and safety. Comrades try to read, reflect, give yourself more or less references and a right strategy, not all in. If there is any problem, please ask again. Finally, Luong hopes that you will have favorable investments and big wins. Love! P/s: thanks to the ad team for reviewing the post!
Source: Collector
