– In terms of macro analysis, we have news that US inflation CPI has just dropped to 3%. The Fed’s goal is to bring inflation down to 2% to begin cutting interest rates. Inflation is only 1% away from the target and the Bitcoin Halving (Q2-2024) is approaching, making many brothers start to hype and think an Uptrend is coming, but is it that easy? One thing that people forget is that interest rates are now HIGH. In March and May, there were 2 US banks that failed when the interest rate was at 4.75-5% while the current interest rate is 5.25% and can continue to increase. The longer the interest rate lasts, the more banks, investment funds, businesses and investors will be liquidated when they use leverage (borrowing capital) pressure, so the economy will be extremely difficult. large (high interest rates hinder the borrowing of capital to expand production and business). Although inflation has decreased, but interest rates are at the peak, so this period cannot Uptrend yet, even if the interest rate is 2%, the Fed will not immediately decrease and will keep it for a few months, then there will be a block. because they can’t afford high interest rates. In my personal opinion, when the Fed started making the decision to cut interest rates for the first time, that was the time to confirm the market started an Uptrend. – Regarding Technical Analysis in M FRAME, we only have 1 Pump span and no correction phase on the monthly frame. BTC currently lacks the corrective wave (2nd bottom) to confirm the 15k area again before the market enters the Uptrend phase, the Market will need a long span to eliminate the fry as well as the whales will There is one last batch of stock. My view in the medium term BTC can go back to 17-20k with the current dominan market, Altcoins can retest the old bottom or break the bottom is normal, this will cause fear to cover the market again before when the bull run season kicks in. – Summary: Currently, in terms of macro and technical analysis, the market cannot Uptrend this year, according to my prediction, the market will begin to confirm the Uptrend by the beginning of Q2/2024 by the Fed lowering interest rates. Note that this is my opinion in the medium term, in the short term, the market will have another rally of at least 36k.
Source: Collector
