UPDATE BTC April 29 is currently trading in the 293. The last 2 gaps for unfilled BTC on CME are 36k and 20k(h1).. Gap at 36k would be close to current price Filling Gaps are just a matter of time. At the moment, the spot market is dominating quite a lot and gaining good control over the market. The reason that perp is selling is quite strong but the spot has absorbed all the selling power of derivatives and kept the price from falling further (h2). And when the perp continuously sells but the spot absorbs well, a bounce back to the range of nearly 30k is inevitable (h3) because mn is shorting too much, leading to negative funding. However, the recovery may only last until the end of the week when the stock reopening will not be good for BTC. Spot selling pressure is in the 30k(h4) range. In addition, the spot is playing the role of holding and driving the price if the spot sells, it will hardly get too much support. Even the option market on May 1 did not have many support vols for price points above 30k (h5). If BTC will be really bad when the stock reopens because there will be a tendency to follow SPY for SPY’s option to close at 415 but the positive gamma levels 416 especially 417 are very large act as a resistance strong price rejection. SPY may still increase but it is difficult to pass 416 and 417 and the 410 and 413 levels will be more attractive and attract better prices. This will lead to a decrease in BTC. h6 Conclusion BTC needs to quickly return to the 30k range before stocks reopen.
Source: Collector
