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HomeNewsUpdate market movements on March 21 before extremely important developments this week....

Update market movements on March 21 before extremely important developments this week. The morning of March 23 will be a trading session full of fluctuations.

Overview of the current world financial situation around the liquidity issue of current banks. Major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and BOE have launched policies that the big banks will work together to increase the liquidity of the USD. Therefore, the demand for USD is likely to increase in the near term. Risky investment channels or cryptocurrency stock market will be more or less affected by the need to switch from risky assets to other safe assets. For BTC has seen over 82% growth from last year’s bottom. The continuous push in the price in the past weeks has changed the psychology and trading behavior of the market. When the price bounced higher traders expected the price to go lower to be able to fill their lower limit buy orders (h2). However, MM only spent a short decrease in price, then continued to pump up, then continuously to higher levels, this leads to 2 main consequences. As a result, pending orders to buy at low prices below are not filled after seeing the price rise and traders do not have long or spot positions in their wallets, causing a feeling of impatience and frustration when prices go up. without stock in hand. This leads to the second consequence of changing transaction behavior. Traders are forced to change their buy limit orders to buy market orders directly to create liquidity for the market. It can be summarized as waiting to buy at a low price and then switching to buying at a high price to supply the market. After the price has risen, the limit orders have almost disappeared, so it can be seen that the trader accepts to buy at a high price (h3). liquidity issue has been resolved. Onchain information: during the price increase, there is always a huge amount of BTC poured into derivatives exchanges and the total supply on exchanges is at a high level (h4). They push up derivatives with the obvious purpose of opening long margin positions, which leads to a continuously increasing OI of margin coin (h5). Only coinbase reduced the amount of BTC on the exchange while other exchanges like binance bitfinex okex.. all increased significantly (h6). MM’s wallet has a balance from 1 to 10k, but it is not significant (h7). The total supply of stablecoins always decreases quite significantly after each pump from the market, showing that the demand for taking profits at high prices to transfer stablecoins to Teather burned to convert to fiat money leads to a decrease in the total supply (h8). The focus of the movement is the OPTION market. The session expires on March 31 with a total volume of nearly $21 billion, maxpain price is at 23k. Looking at more volume trading strategies for the week, there is a risk reversal mechanism from the majority of traders’ long positions that expire on 24 and 31 (h9). The short risk reversal strategy is triggered when the trader is expecting the price to go up but there is still a fear that the price will reverse so they need to activate a put option at a price level to be able to reduce it. risk when prices go down. Specifically on the strategy, it can be seen that if on March 24th trader was afraid that the price might drop below the 26k range, so they bought a 26k put option to hedge their risk, so they can see if the price is on 24/24. 3, no matter how much they drop, they still have a put option at 26k to protect. However, in case 2, if the price increases, all profits will only stop at the price of 28k. The fact that there are so many reversal strategies for short positions shows that a part of traders are afraid of price reversal. The session on March 31 emerged with a very complicated strategy that was traded yesterday (h11) including a combination of 4 different options: sell 2 ATM call options at 25k buy 1 quienf choose to buy ITM at 23.5 and finally 1 OTM call option at 265. The maximum profit that this strategy brings is on March 31, the price must be exactly at 2 25k ATM call options. The special thing is that this strategy was put in place yesterday when BTC price was above 28k, showing that they are really expecting the price to drop on March 31. They will lose when the price on March 31st BTC price is still above 265. There are many good strategies that expire on March 32, but writing them all will be quite long. The conclusion is not yet sure how far BTC can go but with the current banking crisis, the increase in demand for USD may cause BTC to be negatively affected with the expectation that BTC will bounce around the range. 25 26k at the end of the month.

Source: Collector



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